The Québec of tomorrow



Alain Bélanger, research professor at the Urbanisation Culture Société Research Centre at the Institut national de recherche scientifique, used microsimulation to model the evolution of Québec's population between now and 2031, including changes in cultural diversity

His work has produced several interesting results.

University graduates may struggle to find jobs corresponding to their qualifications. 

Thus we learn that, between 2006 and 2031, the Canadian labour force is expected to increase by about 4.1 million people, an annual growth rate of 0.8%. However, the share of the labour force with a high school education or less will decrease by about 1.1 % per year, while the number of university graduates will increase by about 3.6 % per year. This could cause labour shortages in lower skilled jobs, while university graduates may struggle to find jobs corresponding to their qualifications. Bélanger's work examines the effect of demographic components of population growth (fertility, mortality, immigration and internal migration) on the size, structure and composition of the population. His results will be useful in planning services to meet the needs of the population, in addition to evaluating the effects of immigration policy and the economic integration of immigrants.

Finally, the models developed by the researcher will help to quantify and qualify potential labour force shortages. These results have been the subject of scientific articles published in Population and Development Review, L'observateur économique canadien et Canadian Geographer. They have also been presented at the General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association in Sweden, and the Forum sur la diversité de la Société de transport de Montréal.